CORRELATION BETWEEN "PRIDE" EVENTS IN VARIOUS CITIES IN EUROPE, 1998-2005, AND NEW HIV POSITIVE CASES IN THE LOCAL POPULATION,
GENERAL IMPLICATIONS FOR ISRAEL, 2006
By Daisy J. Stern, MD
Kiryat Arba, Israel,
July 23, 2006
Much has been written about the recent alarming resurgence of new HIV cases (as well as of other sexually transmitted diseases such as syphilis and gonorrhea, which I will not deal with here) all over the Western World, particularly in the male homosexual population, but also in the general heterosexual population, specially among women. Even though researchers have stressed the importance of prevention in order to stem this epidemic, nobody so far seems to have correlated these frightening increasing numbers with the recent phenomenon of massive, up to fortnight- long, orgiastic, international homosexual gatherings such as" Europride", "WorldPride", and other such "Pride" events that have been recklessly organized by Interpride and other such homolesbian organizations all over Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, and Israel.
Besides the human suffering to the individual and his/her family caused by a new HIV infection, no less important is the financial aspect of the illness. Conservative estimates of the life-long treatment costs, not mentioning loss of productivity, for each new case, have ranged, years ago, between US$ 100,000 and US$ 225,000 per case. These costs have surely risen since, considering the availability of powerful and very expensive medications that prolong the lives of HIV infected patients, but that governments, in the final analysis, have to pay for.
I am stating that the Government of Israel, by actively encouraging such massive gatherings of homosexuals in Israel in 2006, but also before and after 2006, is in fact engaging in reckless, lethal behavior, that non only directly endangers Israel's population, but that also seriously affects the economy, and will end up costing the taxpayers much more than can possibly be earned by having these guests here, for whatever time they spend in our hotels, restaurants, clubs, bars, beaches, etc.
I therefore recommend to the Government of Israel, as well as to any other concerned government, to immediately prohibit such gatherings, for the sake of public safety; they should consider "Pride "events no less lethal than a biological weapon!
(I will deal here only with the European aspect of the events, leaving out the US, which, of course, is certainly as significant, if not more, than the European sequence, since the whole movement started there; however, since my claim is based on European figures, mentioning the US will not add any new information to this article.)
Ever since the Stonewall riots of 1969, the Homosexual and Lesbian population had felt the need to be legitimized in the eyes of the world. What started as a political protest movement similar to the Civil Rights Movement, however, and consisted at first of a yearly memorial march and one-day event, changed character when in 1997, the organizers in London decided to change the event into a two day festival for "enjoyment" rather than a political statement.
Also, in 1998, in Dublin, IRELAND, the first Pride event took place.
Next, in 1999, InterPride, the organizers of the international Pride events, decided to have their yearly convention ( about 100 delegates from all over the world) in Glasgow, Scotland, the first ever outside the US.
What we do see is a change, over a few years, in the UK, from a relatively clothed, restrained, one-day event, attracting tens of thousands of people, to a massive, unrestrained orgy over more than a day.
Parallel massive events, "Europride", take place in Germany, Denmark, France, Sweden.
In 1998, AMSTERDAM is the site of the first ever "Gay Games" in Europe, as well as a huge, yearly, three day "Canal Festival", one of the largest in Europe, attended by about 250,000 homosexuals in 2004 in total debauchery – and don't forget that in Amsterdam marijuana is legal, important because there is a correlation between recreational drug use and heightened HIV transmission.
Fast forward to 2000.
EuroPride is changed to World Pride. Half a million gays and lesbians revel in ROME, ITALY for about a week. Orgies, parties, debauchery ; etc.
2002: GERMANY. Over a million attendance!
In ISRAEL also: 1998, Tel Aviv, First gay parade. Very liberal views towards homosexuals: every year, the parades get bigger. From 2002 on, also in Jerusalem. Other cities too.
2006: London hosted a two- week long event.
All over, the events get bigger, attended by more people, totally gay and orgiastic, a perfect breeding ground for transmission of the HIV virus – and other associated infections –by HIV positive men.
Now for Statistics:
A. First, a few facts:
For an HIV positive individual, a high-risk transmission event consists of unprotected vaginal or anal sex, with a HIV negative partner or a partner of unknown HIV status.
Many homosexual men are known to engage in sex with multiple partners, in casual settings.
There is an association, as mentioned earlier, between heavy recreational drug use (non- injected), and high-risk sexual activity.
There is a definite heavier use of alcohol, marijuana, cocaine and other recreational drugs in the homosexual than in the general population (PubMed, McKirnan, Peterson & Stall R, Wiley J.)
Extremely high (32%) HIV prevalence in "ultraheavy " non –injection MSM drug users (Public Health, JA Catania and al, 2001).
1.Incidence of High Risk sexual behavior:
- Study from JAIDS, October 1, 2005,on 1910 HIV- infected MSM (men who have sex with men) in the US:
"12.7%… reported at least one transmission-risk event in the previous 3 months, with 57% of those events taking place with casual as opposed to steady partners…."
- HIV/AIDS Surveillance in Europe ,Mid-year Report, 2005, Number 72
WHO AIDS Epidemic Update, 2005, page 68;
" A 1998-2004 study has found that the proportion of men who had unsafe sex with a casual male partner in London rose sharply in 1998-2001 (6.7% to 15.2%)"
2.Lack of knowledge of one's HIV status:
- WHO AIDS epidemic update, December 2005, page 66:
"( in Baltimore), 40% of the MSM ….tested HIV positive ,and 62% of them had been unaware of their infection."
"Overall, one quarter of people living with HIV are believed to be unaware that they are infected."
3.HIV Prevalence among MSM:
- HIV/AIDS No 72:
" In Western Europe, the HIV prevalence…ranged from a high of 18% in Barcelona in 2002 to 5% in Ireland in 2004".
" In 2002, HIV prevalence among MSM with a diagnosed acute sexually transmitted disease ….varied from a minimum of 11% in the UK to 55% …among MSM with syphilis in Paris."
- The Changing Face of the HIV Epidemic in Western Europe , the Lancet 2004, EuroHIV, Francoise Hamers:
"Since the late 1990s, striking increases in rates of syphilis and gonorrhea and rises in HIV related risk behaviors have occurred among homosexual and bisexual men in western Europe as well as in other parts of the industrialized world."…."(they) have the potential to lead to an expansion of HIV transmission among homosexual and bisexual men."
4. Incidence of New Cases of HIV, 1998 to 2004, Western European Countries:
- Lancet, 2004, Francoise Hamers:
" Among homosexual and bisexual men, HIV diagnoses increased in 2002(22%…) after a slow decline in the previous years. Along with these changes in transmission patterns, the proportion of women among people newly diagnosed with HIV infection increased from 25% in 1997.. to 38%."
These trends were largely driven by the UK,… however, increasing trends were also noted recently in most other countries…Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland and specially IRELAND
where the rise has been even more striking than in the UK."
- AIDS EPIDEMIC, 2005:
"IN GERMANY, new HIV diagnoses in MSM have almost DOUBLED FROM 2001 TO 2004".
"…a study…in ROME, Italy, found a dramatic rise in new HIV infections…. Incidence in 2000-2003 was twice as high as for 1984-1995 and much higher than for 1996-1999."
- Lancet, 2004, Fr. Hamers
"In Italy, heterosexual transmission accounted for most HIV infections diagnosed in 2000"
- HIV/AIDS 2005:
" In 2004 , in Western Europe"… the 5991 cases of HIV cases reported in MSM in 2004 represented 26% of all HIV cases" ".
"In these 38 countries (that have reported), there has been a 45% increase in the number of newly diagnosed cases of HIV reported amongst MSM between 2000 (3,010) and 2004 (4,374)".
"THE LARGEST INCREASE WAS REPORTED IN ISRAEL(!!) , A 163% INCREASE FROM 2000 TO 2004"!!!!!!
"PERCENTAGE INCREASES OF MORE THAN 50% WERE REPORTED IN DENMARK (121%), FINLAND (83%) AND GERMANY (54%)…"
BY CONTRAST, IN POLAND, WHICH OUTLAWED PRIDE EVENTS: PREVALENCE IN 2003 WAS 5.4%
COMPARE THAT TO ISRAEL!
5. SOME FIGURES ON NEW RATES IN MSM REPORTED IN EUROPE, 2000-2004:
ITALY, 2000 (YEAR OF WORLDPRIDE ROME 2000): 36.4%
ITALY, 2001 : 30.7%
ITALY, 2002 :26.7% (BEGINS TO TAPER OFF)
AMSTERDAM, 2000: 16.9%,
GERMANY, 2002 (A MILLION PEOPLE ATTENDED EUROPRIDE THAT YEAR): 48.8%!!
If one correlates the figures of new incidence of HIV in the various years and localities where EuroPride, WorldPride, and such events occurred, such as in Germany, the UK, Ireland, and Rome, Italy, etc., there is NO DOUBT that the correlation with new cases of positive HIV in the MSM population is striking.
Add to that the dramatic rise in associated sexually transmitted diseases, the increase in high risk behavior, the use of recreational drugs, the mobility from country to country, AND THE FACT THAT ISRAEL, OF ALL "EUROPEAN" COUNTRIES, HAS THE LARGEST RELATIVE RISE IN NEW HIV CASES, AND YOU CAN SEE THE RECIPE FOR AN ABSOLUTE DISASTER, EVERY TIME WE ALLOW SUCH EVENTS TO OCCUR, WHETHER THEY BE NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL! THE FACT IS, UNTIL NOW, ALL EVENTS HERE WERE OF A NATIONAL NATURE, AND YET, THE RISE IN ISRAEL WAS THE LARGEST OF ALL THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES!
LET A POPULATION WHICH IS A KNOWN CARRIER OF THE HIV VIRUS, AT A RATE OF BETWEEN 10 AND 20% AND LIKELY MUCH MORE, LIGHT THE FUSE BELOW THIS ALREADY BURNING KEG, AND YOU HAVE A DISASTER WHICH WILL AFFECT ISRAEL FOR YEARS TO COME.
THIS NEW RECENTLY INFECTED HIV POSITIVE POPULATION, IN TURN, INFECTS THE NON-MSM POPULATION,( I.E. BISEXUALS), FOR WHICH I HAVE NO EXACT DATA HERE, BUT WHICH IS HIGHLY SUGGESTED BY THE 2000 SPREAD OF THE HIV VIRUS AMONG HETEROSEXUALS IN ROME, AS WELL AS IN WOMEN IN GENERAL.
IN THIS LIGHT, IT IS ABSOLUTELY RECKLESS AND CRIMINAL ON THE PART OF THE GOVERNMENT TO NOT ONLY PERMIT, BUT TO ACTUALLY PROMOTE THIS KIND OF TOURISM THROUGH THE INTERNET VIDEO WIDELY DISTRIBUTED BY THE MINISTER OF TOURISM.
UNTIL NOW, THE GOVERNMENT COULD CLAIM IGNORANCE, BUT NO MORE. FROM NOW ON, IF IT PERSISTS, IT WILL BE GUILTY OF CRIMINAL ENDANGERMENT, EVEN OF INTENTIONAL MURDER, G-D FORBID, OF THE ISRAELI POPULATION.
Various reports, as mentioned above, calculate the lifetime cost per new HIV patient, to be between US$ 100,000 to US$ 225,000. That figure is not exact, and unfortunately I can't correct it at this time. We also don't know how many people will come, either in this event, or any future event. But to get an idea:
If in 2004, the number of cases in Israel was 64, and there was a rise of 163 % between 2000 and 2004, AND THAT WAS ONLY IN THE MSM POPULATION, WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SPREAD INTO THE GENERAL POPULATION, AS NOTED ABOVE, AND WITHOUT KNOWN EXTRANEOUS INFECTIONS,
If, let's say, we expect about 100,000 homosexual revelers, of which about 50,000 are men, in 2006 – a rough estimate, one can always extrapolate, depending on how many arrive- ,
of whom about 15% , - conservative estimate -, are HIV positive , i.e. 7500 HIV positive men,
of whom about 15% , - conservative estimate - , exhibit high risk behavior,
that means about 1125 HIV TRANSMISSION ENCOUNTERS, assuming one encounter per MSM, a very low and unlikely figure, considering the typical high-risk behavior of a typical high-risk behavior MSM.
HOW MANY OF THESE RECIPIENTS WILL ACTUALLY CONTRACT HIV? IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE.
50%? THAT MEANS 562 NEW CASES.
25%? THAT MEANS 281 NEW CASES.
100%? THAT MEANS 1125 NEW CASES,
without taking into consideration secondary infections in the general population.
HOW MUCH WILL THAT COST?
BETWEEN 28 MILLION DOLLARS, LOW ESTIMATE, TO 25 BILLION DOLLARS AND MOST LIKELY QUITE HIGHER, HIGH ESTIMATE.
IS THIS A COST THE STATE OF ISRAEL IS WILLING TO ASSUME?
IS THIS AN ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL BURDEN THE TAXPAYERS CAN REALLY AFFORD IN THESE EXCRUCIATINGLY DIFFICULT DAYS?
In light of all these data, I cannot do anything else but DEMAND, as a physician and as a concerned citizen of this country, that these events be abolished, once and for all, by order of the Government, so we can finally stem this terrible epidemic.
Furthermore, the organizers and financiers of this event show such poor judgment that they have to be considered a danger to public safety, and should be prevented, by whichever means it takes, from ever influencing the Israeli public again.
Daisy J. Stern, MD