WINSTON MID EAST ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY February 1, 2009 NEW Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Please disseminate & re-post - with attribution. If you publish, send us a copy. Many of our articles appear the archives of gamla.org.il/english & freeman.org Outgoing mail is virus-checked. To be removed from this list, send your Email address
WHAT WILL BE KADIMA'S NEXT TRICK TO STAY IN POWER?by Emanuel A. Winston, Mid East analyst & commentator
I wrote an article entitled "THE NEXT POLITICAL WAR IN ISRAEL" on December 13, 2008, wherein I examined the convenient timing of the IDF attack on Gaza in light of Israel's 8 years of "restraint". Clearly, it was no coincidence, since the Israeli elections were moved up to come soon. The trio of Ehud Olmert, Ehud Barak and Tzipi Livni wanted to look heroic to the voters and retain power.
Given that all three were on a short leash to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, they needed permission to slip that leash based upon the need to keep the Kadima Party in power. You can't give away a country without having friends on the inside of that government.
So Kadima was allowed to go to war but, not to win - only to create sufficient damage and stop before the Hamas enemy was finished. The Kadima three assumed they would look so heroic to the public they would easily be voted back into power.
Is it possible that Olmert's cease-fire was set just in time to allow longer range missile in from Iran so that Tel Aviv would be hit before elections so Kadima could cancel elections?
Of course, it was expected that they would complete the Faustian bargain with Rice and the U.S. State Department that included but, not limited to dividing Jerusalem, creating a second state by driving the Jews out of Judea, Samaria, the Jordan Valley, the Golan Heights and other benefits.
But, something went wrong. The Polls indicate that the Likud Party under Bibi Netanyahu will likely win the dominating numbers in the February 10th elections. What can Kadima do now? What tricks are left in their bag?
If they can manage a major suicide attack or a missile into Tel Aviv, Kadima would claim an emergency and have the accommodating Knesset call off the elections.
Olmert has already set the stage by announcing that he has instructed the Defense Minister Ehud Barak to prepare for an instant response to further attacks. But, he needs something newsworthy - like an explosion in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, G-d forbid.
The Military would again be called into action to bomb targets further into Gaza. We all should understand that both Palestinian factions: Fatah and Hamas prefer Kadima in power. After all, Kadima with U.S. backing is far more dependable to give up territory than Likud.
So what will be the next trick of choice to delay the February 10th elections?
Whatever it is should happen in the next few days or a week at the most.
Perhaps nothing will happen but a lot of people have invested quite a bit in forcing Israel underwater to appease her enemies.
Should the unthinkable happen along the lines of the suggested scenario above, then it would be up to President Obama's Middle East team to pick up where Olmert and Rice left off.