"I TOLD YOU SO" by Emanuel A. Winston, Mid East analyst & commentator
On December 13th I published a forecast on the high probability that Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (resigned due to imminent criminal indictments but still in power) and Defense Minister Ehud Barak would launch an attack (years too late) but, in sufficient time to help them and their cohorts in elections.
Today, December 31st FOX NEWS with Bill Reilly and Dick Morris were discussing the Israeli retaliatory attack on Hamas in Gaza. Dick Morris, a well-known analyst, said that Hamas wanted a fight which gave the Kadima Party (Olmert, Barak and Livni) a better chance to succeed in the coming elections and to keep Bibi Netanyahu out of power.
The need to dis-empower Hamas is necessary but, Barak has proven that he is not to be trusted. There is a strong sense that this war will end with the same failure as did the Lebanon Summer 2006 War with Hezb'Allah.
As Tzipi Livni, a deeply flawed and incompetent woman who jumped at the chance to end the Lebanon War inconclusively and put useless U.N. peacekeepers into place.
The War against Hamas should continue until this Terrorist organization cannot re-assemble and come back in months or a year to shower Israel with more Rockets, Missiles and Mortars.
Various sources have quantified the numbers of ordinance launched since 2001 by Hamas on Israeli civilians as 3,000 or 4,000. Now we see in the Media those numbers have been doubled to 6,000 or 7,000. Doesn't anyone properly keep score?
America learned a hard lesson in Afghanistan when they allowed Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban to escape untouched from Kabul and into the mountains of Tora Bora. The Taliban have now re-grouped and the U.S. must send in another 20,000 American troops. The Lesson is: Don't allow Terrorists to survive with cease-fires (Hudnas are not peace). Then they can come back and kill you.
I have enclosed my original forecast of December 13. While Olmert, Barak and Livni are now doing the right thing to counter the Hamas rain of Terror on the South of Israel, they are years too late. They should be held accountable for the years they allowed South Israel to suffer.
After the failures of the Yom Kippur War, Golda Meir resigned, as did Moshe Dayan, among others. She and the Generals followed the pressures from the U.S. of President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who ordered restraint despite their incoming Intelligence foretelling the "Surprise" attack. Nixon and Kissinger threatened that IF Israel launched a pre-emptive strike, they would not support or re-supply Israel. Golda obeyed and her mistaken restraint led to excessive casualties.
After this War is over, the entire Kadima government should be brought to trial.
In closing, I am listening to CNN as a reporter is explaining the bombing of the tunnel where cigarettes and fuel oil are being smuggled in from Egypt. CNN makes NO mention of the rampant smuggling of missiles, explosives and Terrorists. She (Paula....) Goes on to use the Sympathy Spin by telling all that a million and a half Gazans are suffering. She also ignores the hundred or so trucks carrying tonnage of food, medical supplies which Israel is sending through. Tell me please, What sane country ever supplies its enemies when they are at war?
But, CNN is doing what it always does, namely "Spinning the News".
WINSTON MID EAST ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY NOTE: December 13, 2008
Strong indicators demonstrate that the Kadima mob is planning a theatrical attack sometime between now and the February elections. I observe Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (resigned for pending criminal indictment BUT, wielding the high powers of PM) visiting Sderot and making heroic speeches a bout his knowing when to strike a retaliatory "pose".
Given Olmert has artfully avoided responding to years of Kassam Rocket, missile and mortar attacks on Sderot and Ashkelon, does he now think that time has arrived? Of course, he does - because national Israeli elections are coming in early February.
Ehud Barak, as Minister of Defense, has restrained the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) from responding to Kassam, Mortar and Grad missile attacks. Now Barak needs to show his good "Generalship" in order to remain as the Head of his Labor Party faction - also in the coming elections. Keep in mind Tzipi Livni, current Foreign Minister, and Shimon Peres, current President - as planners and colluders with the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to get approval for this limited assault on Gaza and Hamas.
It will likely go something like this:
Barak will be in touch with Hamas and smooth the way by transferring $25 million dollars for Hamas Terrorists' salaries. Hamas will, at a certain agreed time, fire off salvos of Kassam Rockets and other ordinance.
They will shoot - and run.
Then Barak and Olmert will make a public announcement of "We have had enough." We must protect our citizens in Sderot and Ashkelon." They will stand next to each other, looking very authoritative with Barak looking like a General abut to go to war.
The Army, under obedient Gen. Ashkenazi will shortly begin moving pre-positioned troops into Gaza. Keep in mind that all of these players knowingly allowed Hamas, with guidance from Hezb'Allah building deep concrete bunkers, with interconnecting tunnels for men and weapons - as they did in Southern Lebanon.
The Israeli troops moving forward will be faced with road bombs that blow up tanks, road-side missiles to destroy any vehicle, snipers positioned in interlocking fields of fire, mortars already sighted in to kill soldiers and buildings mined for possible Israeli soldiers to trigger. All of this and more was being built under the eyes of Olmert, Barak, Livni and Peres but, no attempt was made to stop it.
The Israeli soldiers will cautiously move forward, taking anticipated losses. The Muslim, Arab Palestinians will be in protected positions taking fewer losses. Besides, both were expendable because this is the arrangement.
The Israelis will move into Gaza a few miles, using artillery and tank guns but, under orders not to hit civilian target. Since the enemy has used civilian cover for all its operations, grateful for losses so they could weep to an accommodating Media, the going will be difficult.
At a time agreed upon with Hamas and U.S. overseers, the Israelis will stop their advance, stay put for awhile and then declare victory for the "camp followers" (the Leftist Media) and then order a withdrawal.
Naturally, Olmert, Livni, Peres and especially Barak will be dashing about, giving interviews and posing for photo-ops. The U.N., the E.U., and the U.S. will be protesting the attack as inhumane. Olmert and Barak will say they had to do it - to save Israeli lives - which until now have made little difference to them.
From a time point of view, the kick-off to maximize political benefit before the election, should be sometime before the end of December or the middle of January. That should be sufficient time to get the full benefits of the follow-on propaganda by the Leftist Media.
What heroes these political criminals will be made out to be. All the false speeches and the exciting photos and video film showing advancing tanks will slip smoothly into the pre-election public relations. Kadima will be the glorious pretorian guards going to war and beating the enemy. In the meantime, Hamas will have Barak's $20 million dollars already shipped and received. Their war mechanism will remain mostly untouched in the Gazan deep concrete bunkers. (The concrete was shipped in from Israel - along with the humanitarian aid Israel shipped into Gaza.)
The Muslim Arab Palestinians will stop firing missiles until after the elections and then will start up again - as agreed. It will be a war, not to win, but to advance politicians. Soldiers will have to give up their lives for nothing but a temporary pause.
Nothing like a war to excite the voters. One more benefit could assist Kadima and the 'thinkers' of the State Department. If the voters lift the Kadima vote while lowering the Likud vote, then Likud will be weaker and more malleable to pressure for the two-state plan - presumably moved forward by Obama.
If this were a normal country, those who planned and acted as
the enablers would be tried in a military trial and ordered shot for collaborating with the enemy.
But, Israel is not a normal country and the Quislings will merely be elected again.
1. "IDF PREPARING FOR MAJOR GAZA OPERATION" BY Ron Ben Yishai, ISRAEL NEWS December 11, 2008 http://ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3636726,00.html