Venezuela Prepares as Chavez's Health Deteriorates
January 25, 2012 | 1211 GMT
According to a report published by Spanish newspaper ABC on Monday and Tuesday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez may only have 9-12 months to live as a result of his decision to prioritize presidential duties over personal health. Chavez's prostate cancer was reportedly discovered in January of 2011, at which point his prognosis was five years. Since that initial diagnosis, Chavez has repeatedly postponed treatments or skipped them altogether in the interests of concealing his illness and protecting his political position.
The leaked report, which ABC says was given to the paper by "intelligence services" (much like a November leak to The Wall Street Journal), is dated Jan. 12 and reviews a medical examination Chavez underwent Dec. 30. According to the report, the South American president needs to undergo a painful, debilitating treatment that, while preventing him from working for more than a month, could extend his lifespan. If he defers the treatment, he will likely to die within the year. According to ABC, when presented with a similar conundrum in November, Chavez chose to stay in Caracas rather than travel to Russia for treatment -- out of fear that the political situation in Venezuela was not secure. We have no way to be completely certain that the report accurately represents Chavez's medical condition, but the tenor of the report matches a series of accounts given to Stratfor and other open sources.
Competition within the Chavista inner circle dominated 2011, as each of Chavez's closest associates sought to take best advantage of the turmoil that ensued when Chavez's bout of illness became public in June. The upcoming October elections have added urgency to this struggle. There is no clear successor to Chavez among the Chavista elite. However, Chavez in recent weeks appointed Diosdado Cabello as first vice president of the Venezuelan United Socialist Party and later named him President of the National Assembly. Clearly, a single faction has taken the lead. Cabello represents the pragmatic, militaristic wing of the Chavista elite. However, although powerful, Cabello is not particularly popular, and he is not likely to be a suitable replacement for Chavez in October.
The most believable political alternative to Chavez may actually come from the Venezuelan opposition. After years of disunity and infighting, the opposition is presenting its most credible challenge to Chavez since he came to office in 1999. Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski appears most likely to secure the backing of the opposition parties in the Feb. 12 primaries. Capriles has positioned himself as a man of the people, claiming he is the natural heir to Chavismo, but with a pro-business twist.
The most important thing to remember amid all this uncertainty is that the underlying processes driving Venezuela are not as dependent on Chavez as they might appear. The kind of change that truly shifts the nature of a country comes slowly. The attributes of Chavez's regime that are so criticized by opponents -- the networks of corruption, economic inefficiencies and low levels of international investment – are merely contemporary expressions of Venezuela's timeless patterns of patronage and influence.
Even if a prudent leader takes power in Chavez's wake, he will not likely make immediate changes to the system because the risk of destabilization is high. Capriles has made clear that he would make few major changes -- even saying he would maintain the controversial oil shipments to Cuba.
Assuming Chavez is as ill as this week's reports suggest, the next six months will likely be tumultuous. Nonetheless, there remains a good deal of room for compromise among Venezuela's power players, and a power transition over the next year will not necessarily translate to a severe destabilization of the country.
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/venezuela-prepares-chavezs-health-deteriorates?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20120125&utm_term=engage&utm_content=link8&elq=ece3650a97bd47f88a765c54512e0f30
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/vjw/Curacao1.html
UPDATE:
Interesting developments: while Chavez is slowly dying - or at least it appears so - , Maduro has been taking over. Now there is rivalry between Maduro and Capriles. What IS interesting is that both names, Maduro and Capriles, are names of Jewish families. Check out the Maduro bank in Curacao, and the history of the Maduro family. Again, the scenario is the same, where some of the Maduro's married Catholics, and eventually assimilated into the local populations. This particular Maduro certainly doesn't seem to have anything Jewish about him, if not for his name, but who knows. Look up his genealogy, it must be quite curious. So now we have two descendents of Jewish families 'vying to the throne' in Venezuela. Very interesting development!....
The leaked report, which ABC says was given to the paper by "intelligence services" (much like a November leak to The Wall Street Journal), is dated Jan. 12 and reviews a medical examination Chavez underwent Dec. 30. According to the report, the South American president needs to undergo a painful, debilitating treatment that, while preventing him from working for more than a month, could extend his lifespan. If he defers the treatment, he will likely to die within the year. According to ABC, when presented with a similar conundrum in November, Chavez chose to stay in Caracas rather than travel to Russia for treatment -- out of fear that the political situation in Venezuela was not secure. We have no way to be completely certain that the report accurately represents Chavez's medical condition, but the tenor of the report matches a series of accounts given to Stratfor and other open sources.
Competition within the Chavista inner circle dominated 2011, as each of Chavez's closest associates sought to take best advantage of the turmoil that ensued when Chavez's bout of illness became public in June. The upcoming October elections have added urgency to this struggle. There is no clear successor to Chavez among the Chavista elite. However, Chavez in recent weeks appointed Diosdado Cabello as first vice president of the Venezuelan United Socialist Party and later named him President of the National Assembly. Clearly, a single faction has taken the lead. Cabello represents the pragmatic, militaristic wing of the Chavista elite. However, although powerful, Cabello is not particularly popular, and he is not likely to be a suitable replacement for Chavez in October.
The most believable political alternative to Chavez may actually come from the Venezuelan opposition. After years of disunity and infighting, the opposition is presenting its most credible challenge to Chavez since he came to office in 1999. Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski appears most likely to secure the backing of the opposition parties in the Feb. 12 primaries. Capriles has positioned himself as a man of the people, claiming he is the natural heir to Chavismo, but with a pro-business twist.
The most important thing to remember amid all this uncertainty is that the underlying processes driving Venezuela are not as dependent on Chavez as they might appear. The kind of change that truly shifts the nature of a country comes slowly. The attributes of Chavez's regime that are so criticized by opponents -- the networks of corruption, economic inefficiencies and low levels of international investment – are merely contemporary expressions of Venezuela's timeless patterns of patronage and influence.
Even if a prudent leader takes power in Chavez's wake, he will not likely make immediate changes to the system because the risk of destabilization is high. Capriles has made clear that he would make few major changes -- even saying he would maintain the controversial oil shipments to Cuba.
Assuming Chavez is as ill as this week's reports suggest, the next six months will likely be tumultuous. Nonetheless, there remains a good deal of room for compromise among Venezuela's power players, and a power transition over the next year will not necessarily translate to a severe destabilization of the country.
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/venezuela-prepares-chavezs-health-deteriorates?utm_source=freelist-f&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20120125&utm_term=engage&utm_content=link8&elq=ece3650a97bd47f88a765c54512e0f30
Interesting: just last year we visited Curacao, and absolutely loved that magnetic island practically built by Jews, which harbors the oldest synagogue in the Western Hemisphere. I also bought a book there and read it cover to cover, quite an unusual feat for me, about the history of the Jews of the Caribbean*. The Capriles were prominently featured, a large and prestigious family who migrated around the Caribbean and the northern part of South America. Venezuela, only a boat trip away from Curacao, was a natural choice. A lot of "diaspora" Curacao Jews intermarried with Catholics, though; the book even spoke of "Catholic Jews": what happened is Jewish men who married Catholic women would not convert, while Jewish women who married Catholic men did convert, as this was the Catholic Church's requirements. So we find some very interesting family structures among them.
Wouldn't it be interesting if a Jew, or at least a non-Jew with strong Jewish family ties, were to replace deeply antisemitic Chavez? I am waiting for the day. A Jew can always return to the fold sooner or later.
* Once Jews, by Josette Capriles Goldish. See in particular chapter 3: Coro, Venezuela.
See also:
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/vjw/Curacao1.html
UPDATE:
Interesting developments: while Chavez is slowly dying - or at least it appears so - , Maduro has been taking over. Now there is rivalry between Maduro and Capriles. What IS interesting is that both names, Maduro and Capriles, are names of Jewish families. Check out the Maduro bank in Curacao, and the history of the Maduro family. Again, the scenario is the same, where some of the Maduro's married Catholics, and eventually assimilated into the local populations. This particular Maduro certainly doesn't seem to have anything Jewish about him, if not for his name, but who knows. Look up his genealogy, it must be quite curious. So now we have two descendents of Jewish families 'vying to the throne' in Venezuela. Very interesting development!....
Venezuela's Maduro accuses rival of 'conspiring'
LAST UPDATED: 02/03/2013 03:08
CARACAS
- Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro accused opposition leader
Henrique Capriles on Saturday of "conspiring" against the OPEC nation
during meetings in neighboring Colombia, stepping up his attacks on his
most likely potential election rival.
The government is upbeat about President Hugo Chavez's recovery from cancer surgery in Cuba. But the socialist maverick has not been seen in public or heard from in eight weeks, calling into question the future of his self-styled revolution.
Any new vote in South America's top oil exporter would probably pit Maduro, Chavez's heir apparent, against Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state, who lost to Chavez in last October's presidential election.
UPDATE OF UPDATE:
What had I told you???
http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-Features/Venezuelan-president-My-grandparents-were-Jewish-313312
The government is upbeat about President Hugo Chavez's recovery from cancer surgery in Cuba. But the socialist maverick has not been seen in public or heard from in eight weeks, calling into question the future of his self-styled revolution.
Any new vote in South America's top oil exporter would probably pit Maduro, Chavez's heir apparent, against Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state, who lost to Chavez in last October's presidential election.
UPDATE OF UPDATE:
What had I told you???
http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-Features/Venezuelan-president-My-grandparents-were-Jewish-313312
Posts
2 comments:
S. said:
I must agree with Mr. Chavez. He must not waste any time with treatments at all.... hehehehe
Jack says:
Daisy, don’t be surprised. There was a hero of the Chicanos of California, a legend in his time, one of the last of the traditional vaqueros of the Spanish tradition. His name was Arnold Rojas. He was known as “el jefe” (“the chief”) or “Chief Rojas.” He was born c. 1890 and died in the 1980’s. He was also a brilliant man who steeped himself in the history of California and Latin America. He was also a Jew, as were the first vaqueros of California and Texas as well. As a historian, he was given access to the archives of the Franciscan monasteries in California. They knew who and what everyone was: who were Jews and who were Basques and who were Morriscos and who were “real” Spaniards. He estimated that no less than 30% of the people who went from Spain to the Americas were Jews.
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