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Monday, March 19, 2012

This is our discussion about CDS right after Purim; you hadn't seen that one. I am posting it to clarify points that might be obscure to you.

Here was the discussion that preceded this one:
 Speculation at this point; but what if we are righ...

And see here for current events and the latest info:

11:13 PM Dov: Hello, how is it going? any hint on what is coming with regards to Greece? According to the WSJ the participation was just over 80%. So everyone saying over 95% and 85% were lying all day on Friday. ISDA did declare a default, but claims that only 3.2 billion in CDS insurance will be triggered.
11:14 PM Dov: I think that they are pretending that they haven't made a hornet's nest. ok sorry.
 me: Nothing to be sorry about. This is vital for all of us, and thank you for reminding me. We will need to analyze this situation deeply tonight specially.
12:15 AM Dov: WSJ seems to be saying that there is only 80% participation, and that ISDA did declare this a default. And 3.2 billion in CDSs have been "approved". If they approve any CDS to be paid out, how does this prevent others from saying,
  Let me sue for some of that insurance money too.
12:16 AM me: Dov, off hand, before even reading, it seems to me this is the beginning of the end at least for the big banks. But when will it fall apart? How urgent is the situation? Let me read about it,
12:18 AM Dov: Yea, this is looking like a slow moving freight train that just started to chug.
12:21 AM me: So your dates were right on target.Today I was reading the Artscroll version of Megillat Esther, and they discuss in great details how the dates prophecized by Yirmiyahu were misinterpreted by various entities, and how they all panned out exactly at the end, from the destruction of the Beith Hamikdash, exactly 70 years. The Zohar is not prophecy but I guess close to it, if these events are any clue. And Kol Hakavod to you for bringing this to our attention!
12:22 AM Thank you.
 Dov: I missed by a half a year.
 me: No you didn't!
  You said either Succoth or Purim.
12:23 AM And about tomorrow you were right.
12:24 AM WE were too fast in rushing to warn people, a shame because we lost credibility and now it is crying wolf one time too many. But we didn't count with the countless shenanigans of the PTB.
 Dov: Yes, tomorrow is exactly 72.5 years after the beginning of WW2. which is really at dawn in a few hours when the Blitzkrieg occurred.
12:25 AM me: Psalm 22 ( Kaf Beth) is very auspiciously read on Purim if you have a Bakasha. So I read it, and it mentions Ayelet Hashachar.
12:26 AM Dov: And the ones who have the most to lose from the Euro's collapse are Germany and Italy. Yes, many say that Ayelet HaShachar is Venus which can show up as early as Alot HaShachar.
 me: Maybe we should stay up tonight and daven, read Tehillim
 Dov: I will try that for an hour. I am trying to give up allnighters.
12:27 AM me: It reminds me of Birkat Hachamah 3 years ago.
 Dov: You do know that Birkat HaChama every 28 years made more sense with the Julian calendar than the Gregorian calendar. Halakhah has not yet adjusted to that change.
 me: I am even surprised that they declared the CDS. I guess they didn't have a choice, did they?
12:29 AM So? Re: the calendar.
12:30 AM Dov: Yes, they got less than 95%. Ah the Julian calendar's juxtaposition with the day of the week and the cycles of the sun happens every 28 years if one assumes a 365.25 length to the solar year.
12:31 AM The juxtaposition does not work with the Gregorian calendar.
 me: So this thing happened a day or so before the due date. What do you expect exactly at that time? What other developments do you foresee for this week-end? Bank holiday? I would venture to say not yet. What about you?
12:32 AM Dov: The Gregorian year is 365.2425 days. Yes, not a bank holiday yet. This seems to be a slow moving steam roller. It is hard to predict exactly when it starts to roll over us.
 me: A couple of people have written to me, asking me if they should take their money out of Israeli banks. I hesitate to give any kind of advice.
12:33 AM I would say, not at this time, but be prudent and keep the minimum there.
  Even US banks, only the ones with CDS exposure, right?
12:34 AM Dov: We will have a better idea on Monday when markets and banks have time to react after digesting the news of the default. Also private investors who jumped for the deal will have time to reassess what they should do now that CDSs have been released. This is all so odd but complicated. Jim Sinclair said that there are five US banks that issue CDS for the entire globe. I believe that you mentioned them.
12:35 AM me: I think so.
12:36 AM Dov: Three of those banks issue about 75% of credit for credit cards.
  BOA, Citi, and of course Chase
  that is JPMorgan Chase
 me: So banks outside of those five are not at immediate risk of bankruptcy, at least not from that. But the question is, what happens when the banks that do have Greek bonds start asking for their insurance money, and don't get it because it's all gone... oh, yes, I forgot, QE3,4,5, etc. Dollar devaluation.
12:37 AM Yes, you are right about the credit cards. It is a good idea to have a few spread out among various banks. I did that and I am glad.
 Dov: Yes, the printing press is a complicating factor in all this. When in doubt, print.
 me: So if one fails there are the others at least.
12:38 AM Dov: Well once big banks start to fail, the runs begin, and the situation gets ugly fast.
 me: Still, let's say that Bank A files for insurance, has billions in Greek Italian Spanish German French etc. bonds. No more money, ot at least not more useful money. What happens to those banks, then? They too go down.
12:39 AM The government will try to bail them out again, but with what? China will run, India will run, etc.
12:40 AM Bailout with funny money. Next step, raiding personal accounts, or is there a need, for more funny money? More like gold confiscation. raiding of safe deposit boxes?
 Dov: BOA and Citi are still in bad shape from the subprime mortgage debacle. They have never really recovered.
12:41 AM me: And what about Israeli banks? With money tied up in Apple. By the way, does Israel have GOLD reserves at all? If they don't they better.
 Dov: I don't know.
12:42 AM me:I don't know either. Most countries are mentioned by gold reserves, not Israel. A big mistake on Israel's part if they don't have any. If they don't mention it but do have, smart.
12:43 AM If the banks fail, do you think they will steal money out of people's accounts?
12:44 AM MF global stole gold, AND CASH, right? Which went straight to fund JP Morgan.
 Dov: I find it interesting that Bloomberg early Friday morning ran his mouth off declaring that participation was over 95%. And today it is 15% lower than that. These Erev Rav financial sites just lie so much that it is really hard to find brilliant analysis. Tyler is not going out on a limb either.
 me: I mean, with the printing press, who needs to steal cash?
12:45 AM They did that so people wouldn't rush to their banks, I would say.
  But then, does that mean that Monday will be a dangerous day for people's bank accounts?
12:46 AM I still didn't read all the articles about what happened.
 Dov: I don't know. When I minored in Economics, there was no such thing as a derivative, much less an ISDA either.
 me: What other motivation would Bloomberg have for lying, if not to protect their banker friends.
12:47 AM Dov: Well Bloomberg wants to reelect Obama.
  in addition to the reason of preventing panic.
 me: So what does a lie do that is being discredited 24 hours later???
  I would have interpreted it that they were trying to buy time for the banks.
12:48 AM Dov: He causes the stock market to go up on the news keeping people happy about their retirement accounts. He also spurs on the fraud known as consumer confidence.
 me: So there wouldn't be a run on Friday. After that they have the week-end to manipulate the situation to their advantage,
12:49 AM Dov: correct. They are two days ahead of everyone else except G-d
 me: And Israelis who can go to the bank and withdraw cash on Sunday.
  And Chinese, and Arabs, etc. But Westerners are screwed.
12:50 AM Dov: yes, you think that people will withdraw their money tomorrow here? I don't know.
 me: So should we interpret that lie to the effect that maybe after all it would be prudent to assume a bank run worldwide? A bank holiday Monday
12:51 AM I don't think they will unless they are informed. Right now they are NOT informed because of all this obfuscation. It is very confusing if you don't try to analyze it deeply.
12:52 AM Just from the headlines one wouldn't. What would make me think that maybe it is a good idea is Bloomberg's lie that you just mentioned. It tells me they are trying to hide something , what is it?
 Dov: Yes, when the WSJ says this: A panel convened by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association determined late Friday that Greece's use of the collective-action clauses had breached the rights of bondholders, and authorized payouts on the contracts.
12:53 AM One needs a Masters degree in post 2000 economics to know what to do.
12:54 AM me: That is the internet blackout they were mentioning, I think. Deliberate confusion, so people won't know what to do, what to think.
  Bottom line.
  The big 5 will go broke, I don't see how they could not, Too many contracts out there, right?
12:55 AM The US will print money to no end.
  Gold will be the only good money to have, just not in the US where it can be confiscated.
  Or silver.
12:56 AM A lot of credit cards will eventually cease to function., others will be needed.
  Only rock solid banks will continue to stand.
 Dov: Then the very next paragraph says this:
  ISDA said an auction would be held March 19 to determine how much holders of the contracts would be paid. There is a total of $3.2 billion in outstanding contracts, after subtracting the contracts bought and sold by the same firm. The payouts would total no more than that sum.
  Now this is where I get confused. How can there be only 3.2 billiion dollars in contracts?
12:57 AM This makes no sense.
 me: That does not makes sense.
 me: After substracting the contracts bought and sold by the same firm,. What does that mean>???
 Dov: That is the article.
12:58 AM me: Chinese in English.
  And why hold an auction? Doesn't the contract spell out its value? How much is covered? What kind of cockamamie insurance deal is that?
12:59 AM Dov: I find it confusing. There was a time when I could read somethng about finance and understand it. Lately it all sounds like gobbity gook.
 me: If my house is worth 100,000, that is what is covered. If the bonds are worth 100.000, that is what should be paid out, minus whatever can be recovered directly by selling them.
1:00 AM It is gobbeldy gook
 Dov: which is why there probably will be no run on the banks until they start going bellyup.
1:01 AM me: So in essence the banks themselves are acting like Greece, saying they will pay, say, 40 cents on the dollar? After auction? Glad I don't own any of those bonds.
 Dov: since no one really understands the consequences.
  except those with everything to lose
  and they aren't talking
 me: They are basically saying they will only pay a small portion.
1:02 AM Dov: How does that happen?
 me: So they don't go belly up. Them, and Greece.
  What happens?
 Dov: So what is Tyler saying?
1:03 AM me: Let me read, I'll be back.
1:08 AM me: OK. Will read it. Now I am reading the the WSJ article. What that tells me is that the 5 big banks are big holders of those contracts, and they are obviously not paying themselves. That is what the 3.2 billion dollars are, the rest of the holders of the bonds. The five bid ones are the other holders. So one way or another the big 5 will lose, either by paying out contracts, or simply by not getting their money back from Greece.
  And this is only the beginning. Wait for other countries' bonds.
1:09 AM I was reading that Goldman Sachs got Greece into this situation. They were going broke there already, and they stuck Greece with their bill. Now they will have no choice but to lose no matter what. Same with the other 4.
1:11 AM Dov: So does the dew hit the fan in the next couple of weeks by the March 20th date? or did they just extend their lives for Heaven knows how long?
 me: For each €100 in bonds, creditors get €15 in high-quality, short-term bonds issued by the euro zone's rescue fund, and €31.5 in new Greek bonds that mature 11 to 30 years in the future.
1:12 AM In essence, creditors are getting 15 cents of the dollars, in Euro bonds that could also default in the near future by the way. The rest is hot air.
 Dov: Is this about to get ugly imminently?
1:13 AM me: Imagine having a few billion dollars of those securities.
  Big and good question. Let me think.
  Plus whatever they can get from the big 5, probably a few cents more.
  Certainly not the value of their contract, no doubt.
1:14 AM The BANKS THEMSELVES WILL BE IN DEFAULT, if they don't pay up. Isn't that bankrupty?
  Who can declare them in default?
1:15 AM By March 20th the big 5 will be in default, if the definition of default is not paying your bills????
 Dov: Jim Sinclair let me google him. He seems to have inside info. So you are saying that the reason why they only have to pay out 3.2 billion is because they don't have to pay themselves. Hmm.
  yes, that is the definition.
1:16 AM me: Isn't that what the article says? It say , 3.2 billion, after substrating the contracts BOUGHT AND SOLD BY THE SAME FIRM>
  Which firm would both buy a contract , and sell one? Only one that can do that, with other words, one of the big 5. Unless they sold the contracts to each other, possibly.
1:17 AM Dov: OMG. Is it that simple?
 me: It seems to me.
 Dov: Who are the 20% that did not agree to this? Do they get paid too?
 me: So there are a few outside contract buyers, but the majority were bought by the big 5.
1:18 AM Those 20% make up 9 billion. Right?
1:20 AM I have a headache, can't concentrate right now. Sorry
1:21 AM Dov: and now the WSJ is saying that worries over the Euro debt crisis have now eased. I get a headache just from the lies.
 me:1:22 AM I need a break.
  This is very difficult to understand and read.
1:23 AM Dov:  take a break. I guess it will wait until morning. Israelis won't figure this out either. So I don't expect a run on the banks tomorrow.
  or today since tomorrow is really today.
 me: I am not going to sleep yet,. Will just drink some tea. Want to get that straight before Alot Hashachar.
1:24 AM Dov: ok let me know if you can figure this out. I will try to see what Jim Sinclair is saying.
 me: I doubt that Israeli banks will close on Monday,. I think the can has been kicked for another 8 days, What date is that according to the Zohar>]
  Till March 19, when they do their auction.
1:25 AM Dov: Well RH Nisan is March 23rd at sundown. This year that is Shabbat.
 me: Calm before the storm. Another week.,
  Anything important Zohar wise?
1:26 AM The bottom line: they are royally screwed.
  the big 5
  To begin with
  Will read Zero hedge, Jim Sinclair, WSJ, and then will see.
1:31 AM me: He knows his stuff.
1:32 AM So, I would say, YES. Run on the banks! If enough people read Jim Sinclair. Do they?
  And not only on the big 5.
  What about Bank Leumi?
1:33 AM International Banks too, German, French, Italian, Swiss, Spanish, Brazilian, Chinese, or what?
 Dov: I don't know. This looks incredibly large. No one can print 37 trillion dollars.
1:34 AM me: They OWE on all that money, and just for Greece? That's derivatives for you.
1:36 AM Dov: 37 trillion dollars??? that much money for Greece?
 me: Seems quite unbelievable. how could it be so much?
1:38 AM Funny, he is also mentioning inflation as the direct consequence.
 Dov: Well don't ask me. I haven't quite figured out what a derivative is. The best explanation that I have heard so far is hot air pretending to be money
 me: But the other day he was saying the ISDA were only 5 banks. Now he says it is also international banks.
1:39 AM Your definition is about right.
  hot NEGATIVE air pretending to be money, giant vacuum cleaner sucking money out of the system.
1:40 AM Money which SOME rich CEO's pay themselves in salaries wasted on airplanes, mansions, orgies, etc. etc. etc
 Dov: It seems that the derivatives are part of the structure of this house of cards. The cards themselves might be worth a few tens of billions but the hot air is "worth" a lot more than that.
 me: And of course the Vatican Bank getting rich in gold.
1:42 AM I need to read this carefully and analyze it all. But tachles, what does it mean to us? Run, or no run? And on which banks????
  And when?
1:44 AM Do you think the bank of Israel might also confiscate gold?
 Dov: In Israel silver is not really traded, except amongst the Chareidim. silver religious items and silver coins for Kohanim and the like.
1:45 AM me: Yes, but do you think they might just take away gold from people if SHTF in Israel,. which it might too after all, they are exposed I am sure.
1:46 AM Dov: I don't know the SH never yet HTF before.
 me: Tsenna
1:47 AM When they restricted even food, half an egg a person. In the 50s., was it?
1:48 AM I am going to read more now.
1:49 AM Dov: ok let me know later. I might say some Tehillim and then go to bed.
 me: OK. Good. Thanks for all the info. Good night.

14 minutes
2:03 AM Dov: I am sorry. another OMG.
2:05 AM me: Am reading.
  That is the gobblity gook ISDA statement.
2:06 AM at 2:48pm on Shushan Purim
 me: So why OMG?
2:07 AM Dov: Because Forbes is confirming CDSs over 15 trillion dollars
2:08 AM me: OH. I didn't read the article yet. I was just listening to Jim Sinclair. Not interesting.
  Will read this now.
2:10 AM Dov: Just email me later. This seems to be big after all. The CDSs were triggered at 2:48 on Friday afternoon.

50 minutes
3:01 AM me: "zero hedge comment:
 Dov: huh
 me: 4:07p ISDA: most Greek CDS exposure is collateralized
Greece will hand over gold reserves

Fri, 03/09/2012 -
That was the entire purpose of this whole Farce
3:02 AM Dov: I just happened to get up. because I sense something apocalyptic, and ..
3:03 AM me: With other words, if I understand correctly, thanks to the CDS trick, JP Morgan etc, Will get all richer, inherit Greece's gold! Should have figured this. So this whole shtick was planned in advance.
 Dov: So no one is collapsing?
3:04 AM Or are prices worldwide going to triple overnight.
3:05 AM These banksters are brilliant. Only G-d is smarter.
 me: I don't know. How much does Greece have in gold? Is it enough to cover all the debts? Most likely not,. But the banks will be bailed out, once again. Exactly. INFLATION, inflation, superinflation. particularly in the US,. While the banks get QE 3,4,5, plus all the gold of every country where the CDS get activated.
  Didn't I tell you before that would happen?
3:06 AM Just didn't think on top of it the banks would get the gold. I figured the ECB would., Not the private banks,
  Or is it all the same, it all ends up in Rome anyway.
 Dov: Yes, you said that these banksters know how to protect themselves.
  So when does this hit the fan?
 me: I mean, I said inflation, QE, etc.
3:07 AM It hits when people can't afford basics any more.
  But who says the banks will suffer?
 Dov: Jim Sinclair seems to be talking about prices tripling overnight.
 me: They will get trillions of worthless dollars.
  So maybe that is what we should expect - when, though?
3:08 AM So, what about a run on the banks, does it still make sense?
 Dov: with gold tripling, it means prices are tripling. I don't know. I am not the expert. Something tells me that the banksters didn't figure on a bank run.
3:09 AM They cannot control chaos
 me: The thing to own is gold, gold, and more gold - and silver of course.
3:10 AM Dov: Yet, Silver going above $50 puts JP Morgan out of business. I wonder how they will prevent that from happening?
  They are short on silver
3:11 AM me: Good point. Have no idea. What a mess! So what does the Zohar have to say about what should happen tomorrow?
  IF they were right on the date, why shouldn't they be right on the contents?
3:13 AM Dov: It says that if Mashiach does not come or only makes a quick appearance in the Galil in the year 5766 after Pesach, then we wait six more years until 5772 and one half, and then the ball gets rolling in a way that our Chareidi gedolim can't screw it up for the rest of us which is why it was delayed 6 years to begin with.
3:14 AM There are no more collective tests to fail this time.
  only individual tests
  this is now b'itah all the way. So tests even in the area of common decency for the Klal are over.
3:15 AM OK. And what about our Erev Rav Amalekites?
  They lose their power when the fiat money system collapses.
3:16 AM me:
  Why? don't you think they have plenty stashed away?
3:17 AM Dov:
 me: The Ehud Baraks and co,. are super millionaires. Plenty of gold too, I am sure.
3:18 AM Clinton, Obama, all very, very rich.
 Dov: I think that when the Euro collapses and the world economy goes south, the system of bribery by the Europeans and the US State Dept. will also collapse.
3:19 AM me: According to Jim Sinclair ( his tape I just listened to), It is not the Euro that will collapse, but the dollar.
 Dov: Oh wonderful. So the currency of the Ayin Ra lives on. very odd. Send me the link to his tape. What is his time frame?
3:20 AM me: Then they will start a war - another one- and just impose their will by force.
3:21 AM No time frame, just gradual collapse of the dollar due to loss of reserve currency status.
  If I recall no time frame, I wasn't very attentive
3:22 AM They are not shy anymore. It is all being exposed. Like the last video I sent out about Obama and Panetta and NATO. And the Vatican scheming it is all coming out into the open.
 Dov: But what did he say about the 37 trillion to be paid off? Is not that a shock to the system?
3:23 AM me: Because they plan to use force.
  He didn't discuss that at all.
  Only gold, and the dollar.
  Anyway, the 14 trillion that Forbes was discussing, I think, was covering ALL CDS's, not only Greek ones.
3:24 AM I don't know where Jim Sinclair got that figure.
  Jim was attributing those 37 trillion to Greece alone. Very different figures.
  Still huge, but a big difference.
3:25 AM He was talking hyperinflation, like Germany.
  Which is what you just mentioned too.
3:26 AM So we can expect to pay 100,000$ for a loaf of bread, and that will be cheap! Not here, though, in the US.
 Dov: Yes, something is not adding up with the MSM. If CDSs are triggered those who supposedly accepted the deal out of fear may change their mind and fight for the insurance.
3:27 AM me: Remember the trillion marks for a loaf of bread, leading to Hitler, So who is our Hitler? Coming from Rome. Not to forget our Muslim Hitler helpers.
3:28 AM 
 me: An enormous debt, so enormous it is unfathomable.
  Good night. Tomorrow is another day, hopefully.
3:29 AM Freaky, utterly freaky.

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