2:13 AM Dov: I have given up predicting anymore. just talking about possibilities and eventual results. I should never have given exact dates.
me: You are right. Am I understanding this correctly, though?
2:14 AM Dov: It seems that with all the smoke and mirrors at the end of the day if they don't have 95% of the creditors it collapses. So the smoke and mirrors will be heavy until Purim."
These CACs allow the government to foist the deal on all bondholders if 66 per cent of those who vote approve the deal. So the deal will get done but this time the coercive element can’t be ignored: rating agencies have said they will declare Greece to be in default.
The International Swaps & Derivatives Association is also likely to reconvene to decide if the credit default insurance ought to be triggered.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/
|Dov: They got all the participation that they needed.|
me: Yes. But under CAC's! So the CDS's still might need to be activated according to S&P etc.
It only means that the Euro is not collapsing at this minute,
They didn't have 95% voluntary.
Dov: Then why are they reporting 95.7% participation? Is that accurate on Bloomberg or more smoke.?
me: They FORCED 95.7%. Why not 100%? Would be too obvious? Like Mugabe's election?
FOLLOW-UP, Motzaei Shabbat
Shavuah Tov to all,
It is really not my place to give financial advice to anybody. All I can do is share information I have received ( actually, Dov got that info, and shared it with me), and then you have to make your own decision.
Here are a few links. Read, and then decide.
As for myself, I have come to the conclusion that the danger of a run on the banks is definitely there, but not immediate, and certainly not mainly or only in Israeli banks, Other banks, European, etc, could also be seriously affected, specially the banks that offered CDS. Again, this is speculation, and you have to make your own decisions. For the medium term though, by that I mean starting a week from now or so, I would be very weary, and would follow the situation like a hawk, as it could deteriorate quite quickly.
On the other hand, what is certainly bound to arrive, the question again is when, is massive hyperinflation, due to massive printing of dollars etc. So what I would recommend, which I have already recommended in the past, is to have plenty of staples around: when everyday basics are too expensive to afford, you will be glad you are well supplied.
The conversation we had was very long, so I will spare you.