The last month of
peace, as in other wars, has an almost palpable air of crisis about it.
Incidents, accidents, small disasters add to the tension. Two trains
collide on a railway bridge in Cologne because the signalling system is
out of order. The bridge is seriously damaged and there can be no
traffic over it for the next two months.
In the port of Rotterdam a
Polish supertanker bursts into flames. Because of an error by the
captain the tanker is far too close to the oil storage tanks on the
shore, and the burning oil spreads around the harbour. For two weeks
fire brigades summoned from practically the whole country fight an
heroic battle with the flames. The port suffers tremendous losses. The
fire appears to have spread at a quite incredible speed, and some
experts are of the opinion that the Polish tanker was not the only cause
of the fire, that the fire broke out simultaneously in many places.
In the Panama Canal the
Varna, a Bulgarian freighter loaded with heavy containers, rams the lock
gates by mistake. Experts reckoned that the ship should have remained
afloat, but for some reason she sinks there and then. To reopen the
canal could well take many months. The Bulgarian government sends its
apologies and declares itself ready to pay for all the work involved.
In Washington, as the
President's helicopter is taking off, several shots are fired at it from
sniper's rifles. The helicopter is only slightly damaged and the crew
succeed in bringing it down again safely. No one in the craft is hurt.
Responsibility for the attack is claimed by a previously unknown
organisation calling itself 'Revenge for Vietnam'.
There is a terrorist explosion at Vienna airport.
A group of unidentified men attack the territory of the British military base in Cyprus with mortars.
A serious accident takes
place on the most important oil pipeline in Alaska. The pumping stations
break down and the flow of oil falls to a trickle.
In West Germany there are several unsuccessful attempts on the lives of American generals.
In
the North Sea the biggest of the British oil rigs tips over and sinks.
The precise reason for this is not established, although experts believe
that corrosion of main supports is the culprit.
In the United States an
epidemic of some unidentified disease breaks out and spreads rapidly. It
seems to affect port areas particularly, such as San Francisco, Boston,
Charleston, Seattle, Norfolk and Philadelphia.
There are explosions
practically every day in Paris. The main targets are the government
districts, communication centres and military headquarters. At the same
time terrible forest fires are raging in the South of France.
All these operations -
because of course none of these events is an accident - and others like
them are known officially in the GRU as the 'preparatory period', and
unofficially as the 'overture'. The overture is a series of large and
small operations the purpose of which is, before actual military
operations begin, to weaken the enemy's morale, create an atmosphere of
general suspicion, fear and uncertainty, and divert the attention of the
enemy's armies and police forces to a huge number of different targets,
each of which may be the object of the next attack.
The overture is carried by
agents of the secret services of the Soviet satellite countries and by
mercenaries recruited by intermediaries. The principal method employed
at this stage is 'grey terror', that is, a kind of terror which is not
conducted in the name of the Soviet Union. The Soviet secret services do
not at this stage leave their visiting cards, or leave other people's
cards. The terror is carried out in the name of already existing
extremist groups not connected in any way with the Soviet Union, or in
the name of fictitious organisations.
The GRU reckons that in this
period its operations should be regarded as natural disasters, actions
by forces beyond human control, mistakes committed by people, or as
terrorist acts by organisations not connected with the Soviet Union.
The terrorist acts carried
out in the course of the 'overture' require very few people, very few
weapons and little equipment. In some cases all that may be needed is
one man who has as a weapon nothing more than a screwdriver, a box of
matches or a glass ampoule. Some of the operations can have catastrophic
consequences. For example, an epidemic of an infectious disease at
seven of the most important naval bases in the West could have the
effect of halving the combined naval might of the Soviet Union's
enemies.
The 'overture' could last
from several weeks to several months, gradually gathering force and
embracing fresh regions. At the same time the GUSM would become
involved. Photographs compromising a NATO chief appear on the front
pages of Western newspapers. A scandal explodes. It appears that some of
the NATO people have been having meetings with high-ranking Soviet
diplomats and handing over top secret papers. All efforts to refute the
story only fuel the fire. The public demands the immediate dismissal of
NATO'S chiefs and a detailed enquiry. Fresh details about the affair are
published in the papers and the scandal increases in scope. At that
moment the KGB and GRU can take out and dust off a tremendous quantity
of material and put it into circulation. The main victims now are the
people whom the Soviets had tried to recruit but failed. Now carefully
edited and annotated materials get into the hands of the press. Soviet
Intelligence has tried to recruit thousands, even tens of thousands, of
people in its time. They include young lieutenants who have now become
generals and third secretaries who have now become ambassadors. All of
them rejected Soviet efforts to recruit them, and now Soviet
Intelligence avenges their refusal. The number of scandalous affairs
increases. The nations discover to their surprise that there are very
few people to be trusted. The Soviet intelligence service has nothing to
lose if the press gets hold of material showing that it tried to
recruit a French general, without saying how the attempt ended. It has
even less to lose on the eve of war. That is why the newspapers are full
of demands for investigations and reports of resignations, dismissals
and suicides. The best way of killing a general is to kill him with his
own hands.
There is a marked increase
in the strength of the peace movement. In many countries there are
continual demands to make the country neutral and not to support
American foreign policy, which has been discredited. At this point the
'grey terror' gathers scope and strength and in the last days of peace
reaches its peak.
From the first moment of the
first day of war the main forces of spetsnaz go into action. From then
on the terror is conducted in the name of the Soviet Union and of the
Communist leadership: 'red terror'.
But between the 'grey' and
the 'red' terror there may be an intermediate period - the 'pink'
terror, when active military operations have not yet begun and there is
still peace, but when some of the best spetsnaz units have already gone
into action. The situation is complicated by the fact that, on the one
hand, Soviet fighting units are already in battle, but that, on the
other hand, they are not yet operating in the name of the Soviet Union.
This is an exceptionally risky moment for the Soviet high command. But
he who risks nothing gains nothing. The Soviet commanders want to gain a
great deal, and so are ready to risk a lot. A great deal has of course
been done to reduce the level of risk. Only a relatively small number of
spetsnaz troops take part in the 'pink' terror, but they are the best
people in spetsnaz - professional athletes of Olympic class. Everything
has been done to make sure that not one of them should fall into the
hands of the enemy before the outbreak of war. A great deal has also
been done to ensure that, if one of them should fall into enemy hands at
that moment, it would be very difficult to establish his connection
with any country whatsoever.
No comments:
Post a Comment