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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

About silver: Nothing has changed despite appearances: forecast from a knowledgeable expert; plus, a clear explanation of the Irish crisis.

Silver outlook remains very bullish
11/17/2010 12:07:27 AM | James Turk,
Fundamental factors have not changed and there has been no damage to its technical condition
Silver’s short-term uptrend remains intact, notwithstanding silver’s big price drop on Friday.  The fundamental factors driving silver higher have not changed.  The outlook for silver remains very bullish.
There has been no damage to silver’s technical condition.  For example, silver is above its 21-day Moving Average.  Also, silver remains well above $25, its last major resistance level.  More importantly, the price drop at the end of the week occurred with bullish sentiment taking a nosedive.  These conditions bode well for silver’s short-term outlook, as does the following chart.
The above chart will be familiar because it is the one I used on King World News on October 28 to forecast a $30 silver price in less than 18 trading days.  Silver closed that day at $23.871.  On November 9, only eight trading days later, it reached $29.342 – nearly hitting my target.  The good news is that my reading of the above chart indicates that silver might yet reach $30 within my 18-day target, i.e, November 23.
Note the new pattern silver has formed.  It is a pennant, and these have the same features as the flag pattern upon which I based my $30 forecast.  Both are continuation patterns within uptrends.  They allow for a short-term consolidation, mainly to work-off some bullish sentiment, which accurately describes what happened in silver as this pennant formed over the past few days.  A pennant pattern typically ends with an upside breakout.
My expectation, therefore, is that silver will break out of this pennant to the upside, and probably early this week.  The demand for physical silver remains very strong, and it is the demand for physical silver, and not paper-silver, that ultimately determines the silver price.
Most trading in physical silver takes place in London and Zurich.  The weakness on Friday occurred after both of these centers had closed.  That means that prices were driven down in the paper market.  We have seen these late Friday raids to ‘paint the tape’ many times over the past decade, so this latest one should not be a surprise.  But what is indeed a surprise to me is that the silver shorts would try this gambit now when the physical market is so tight.  Lower prices will only heighten the demand for physical metal.  Thus, I expect the silver price to rebound sharply this week.
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James Turk,
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"What a difference an evening makes – once word began circulating that Ireland was going to be bailed out by the ECB suddenly the hedge funds fell back in love with risk after seeking a divorce from her just the other day. The result – where some markets were limit down yesterday (cotton), today there were limit up. Such is the fickle nature of global capital flows or more appropriately, hot money flows. Do some of you out there find it as amusing as I do watching these hedge funds panicking over Chinese talk about rate hikes to tame inflation only to then run right back into every single market that they threw away the previous few days once they see more QE this time coming from the ECB.
Make no mistake about it, the ECB is engaging in its own version of QE, just as Jim has repeatedly said they would. And if anyone is under any illusions that this was about Ireland, please let me dispel that notion here and now. It is about bailing out the BANKS who are on the hook for the money loaned to Ireland. It is always about the big banks ( I think that there is a special place in hell reserved for that crowd of international thieves). Now that Ireland has apparently received the same treatment as Greece, I suppose Portugal and Spain are next in line.
I wonder what Germany must be thinking about all this.
Regardless, the European Monetary Union is a joke – everyone knows it – there is no one size fits all policy that can ever make this forced union which resembles a patchwork quilt function properly. That did not stop the hedgies from bidding up the Euro once again with the result that down went the Dollar and up went the entirety of the commodity world. Fundamentals be damned; it is off to the races again as inflation is now back in vogue whereas yesterday it was deflation that the hedge fund world was enamored with.....

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