WINSTON MID EAST ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY January 22, 2009 NEW Email: email@example.com Please disseminate & re-post - with attribution. If you publish, send us a copy. Many of our articles appear the archives of gamla.org.il/english & freeman.org Outgoing mail is virus-checked. To be removed from this list, send your Email address
WHY AREN'T JEWS SMARTer?by Emanuel A. Winston, Mid East analyst & commentator
How did we Jews get such an exaggerated reputation for our advanced thinking?
Just because we have so many Nobel Prize winners, out of proportion to our numbers?
Just because we value education based on our thousands of years of living by the Torah which requires constant study?
Well, today the analysts of military accomplishments or losses are busy configuring the recent 22 days of War in Gaza against 8 years of Hamas launching from 8,000 to 10,000 Rockets, Missiles and Mortars against Israel's civilians. Many are blaming the "Three Stooges": Prime MInister Ehud Olmert (resigned due to imminent criminal indictments - but, still in power); Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (a sycophant of the former U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice); and Defense Minister Ehud Barak (known for running away from combat, leaving his soldiers and allies wounded and vulnerable) for quitting too soon and not finishing Hamas off. The smuggling tunnels are already being refurbished and running new weapons into Gaza, with Egypt keeping its eyes closed.
The future course for Israel will likely be entitled: "How to Abandon Victory and Lose a Nation".
How did Olmert, Livni and Barak manage to stage another blunder after the 2006 Lebanon War against Hezb'Allah blunder?
Both Hamas and Hezb'Allah are proxies of Iran and Syria, from whom Hezb'Allah and Hamas receive their advanced weaponry.
In a recent conversation with a world traveler and deep thinker, we discussed the thousands of Rocket and more advanced long-range Grad Missiles still in the hands of Hamas and Hezb'Allah. Our question was: Why did Hamas not score more hits on substantive targets?
My friend opined that the "unguided" Missiles supplied by Iran through Syria (often made by China or North Korea) deliberately did not yet come with guidance systems and, therefore, what Hamas fired was their pre-practice for their next saturation Missile attack when they launch a real war with guidance-controlled Missiles.
In other words, Iran did not want Hamas to be accurate. Their 8 years of launching Rockets, Missiles and Mortars was just "practice" for the real thing - and to terrorize the civilian population of Israel.
Clearly, if more important strategic targets were hit prematurely and obliterated (not "just" civilians), even the reluctant Leftist leaders and population of Israel would have to retaliate with devastating attacks on Iran and Syria - before Iran's nuclear weapons are ready.
But, if Iran, Syria, Hezb'Allah, Hamas and the internal Terror groups of Muslim Arab Palestinians were to be effective in a future attack, they needed launch crews who were sufficiently trained to fire advanced Missiles with accurate guidance systems. The inept leaders of Israel have not grasped what is happening, nor can they understand their own incoming Intelligence adequately to know what they must do - pre-emptively.
Coincidentally, the prominent military journal, U.S. DEFENSE NEWS of January 5 had a front page article by Barbara Opall-Rome on this very subject. The title was "HAMAS LONGER-RANGE ROCKETS THREATEN ISRAELI COMPANIES" (1). This was skillfully written from a military point of view (not political), outlining many of Israel's defense firms in the South of Israel within the current 40- kilometer range from Gaza's hidden and/or mobile launching pads. The DEFENSE NEWS article was accompanied by a map, showing where Israel's most important defense manufacturing firms near Gaza were located as follows:
1. Aeronautics Defense Systems (Yavne): UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), C41 systems
2. Elbit Security Systems (Sderot): Homeland Security and defense systems.
3. IAI's Elta Systems (Ashdod): Radars and imaging processing
4. IAI's Ramta Division (Beer Sheba): Patrol boats, minefield breaching systems, armored vehicles.
5. IMI Ashot Ashkelon (Ashkelon): Transmission and drive systems.
6. Labock Technologies (Ashdod): Bullet-resistant glass, tactical vehicles and armor kits.
7. Mikal Group's Saymar (Ashkelon): Armored vehicle upgrades.
This article did not specify the civilian industry nor civilian targets like schools, hospitals, government buildings, mosques, etc. in the target range. Nor did it outline military targets in the Center or North - of which there are many. These are also vulnerable to guided Missile attack by Hezb'Allah and Iran.
But clearly, this stage of "practice" launching was to do modest damage and not provoke a full scale retaliatory strike against Iran and Syria. However, launching unguided missiles is excellent practice for a future launch of guided munitions. The guidance systems which are well-advanced now, would come from China, Russia and North Korea, with a high degree of accuracy. Keep in mind that Russia has sold Iran and Syria its most sophisticated guided ground-to-air Missiles, which come with training on how to maintain guidance systems to target. And the nuclear weapons' site Israel bombed in Syria on September 6, 2007 (Operation Orchard) was known to have come from North Korea.
In a saturation missile attack they (Hamas and/or Hebz'Allah) could take out all government buildings in Jerusalem - to include but not limited to, the Prime Minister's complex, the Knesset and military bases all well marked and located via satellite imagery.
Five or ten thousand long range guided missiles could destroy Israel's military capability, including her government leaders and institutions. (Granted - no doubt, some would think Israel would be better off without her current incompetent leadership but, the losses would be far greater than losing a few dimwits.)
One must presume that when (not if) Iran decides to unleash Syria, Hezb'Allah with its now 40,000 Katyushas and Hamas (replenished after Gaza), Iran will also likely launch nuclear weapons on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
As observed by military professionals, Israel (under the weak guidance of Olmert, Barak and Livni) caved in to US and European pressure. They did not finish off Hamas, even though then President George Bush expressed his support for Israel's defensive actions in the 22 day War against Hamas in Gaza. Most of the Hamas personnel and stockpiles of Missiles escaped unscathed.
US DEFENSE NEWS of January 5, 2009 also featured 2 other articles: "In Gaza, Both Sides Reveal New Gear: Better ISR, More Planning Back Israeli Strikes" and "Elbit Wins Israel's Contested Mini-UAV Award", all by Barbara Opall-Rome <firstname.lastname@example.org>. When you read these articles and US DEFENSE NEWS regularly, then you can understand why the professionals in America consider Israel to be a really valuable strategic ally.
However, the Israeli government launched an internal propaganda campaign, telling her people that the government had achieved its goals when, in fact, they only succeeded in capturing fringe territory and impressing Gazans with blown up buildings. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) were ready to finish the job in Gaza but, Israel's current leadership displayed cowardice - a yellow streak - for which they've become infamous.
Iran is ready to die for its radical Muslim beliefs while the Jewish State, who does not believe in National Suicide, nevertheless seems to be accepting such a fate at the behest of her leaders. No doubt, Israel will be able to launch some nuclear missiles in a second strike retaliation, unless of course, Shimon Peres, Ehud Olmert, Ehud Barak and/or Tzipi Livni gives the order to stand down any retaliation and accept surrender. Hamas proclaimed victory based on the facts that they had survived - even though they left hundreds of civilian casualties dead and wounded by hiding behind Hamas' own "human shields".
As an added thought, it is unlikely that US Intel would warn Israel of Iran's plans lest Israel move to strike Iran in a pre-emptive hit. It could be like the 1973 Yom Kippur attack and American insistence that Israel not pre-emptively hit Egypt and Syria whose plans of a surprise attack against Israel on Yom Kippur were known.
Before George W. Bush left office, he stymied any Israeli plans to strike Iran's nuclear weapons' facilities before it was completed and chose to stand down any U.S. force.
The number of guided and unguided missiles that could be launched in a saturation missile attack is incalculable. Would a mix of a hundred thousand of every imaginable missile be an exaggeration? I don't think so.
I haven't even factored in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, both of which have huge inventories of guided missiles, rockets, mortars and, of course, advanced aircraft and remain hostile.
1. Hamas' Longer-Range Rockets Threaten Israeli Companies [with map] by Barbara Opall-Rome U.S. DEFENSE NEWS January 5, 2009 www.defensenews.com