[Ramallah] Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud 'Abbas is leaning towards declaring early presidential and legislative elections at the beginning of 2009. However, many Palestinians are questioning the possibility of conducting such elections in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and the ability of such a move to end the internal Palestinian impasse. While 'Abbas still prefers national Palestinian reconciliation, calling for early elections seems to be the only option left for the Palestinian chairman among several options discussed recently in the narrow circle of advisers around him. These include declaring the Gaza Strip a rebel area or cutting the salaries of civil servants in Gaza to push Palestinians there to begin an uprising against the rule of Hamas in the Strip. As 'Abbas will be in Washington on Friday for a farewell meeting with outgoing American President George W. Bush, and on Monday will visit Russia before participating in the midnight mass celebrations in Bethlehem on December 25, no declaration of early elections is expected before this date. Senior Palestinian officials close to 'Abbas say that the first of January will mark the first countdown for issuing a presidential decree calling for presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories. 'Abbas is scheduled to give a speech to the Palestinian people on January 1, which marks the anniversary of the Fatah and the Palestinian Revolution. Hamas movement considers January 9 to be the last date of 'Abbas' presidential term, and are threatening to declare him illegitimate after that date, and possibly declaring the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, 'Aziz A-Dweik, as the legitimate chairman. On the other hand, Fatah and other PLO factions insist that January 9 will be just another normal day and that 'Abbas is the legitimate chairman before, during and after that date until elections are held. In the absence of a constitutional court, there is no Palestinian body that can solve this dispute between the two big factions. A-Dweik is not expected out of an Israeli jail before August 2009 after being sentenced to 36 months in prison by the Ofer military court on Tuesday. He has been in jail for 28 months together with around 35 other Hamas lawmakers from the West Bank, but most of them are expected to be out of prison in 2009, and together they could pose a new threat to 'Abbas' government, since they could form the needed majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council to foil any or all of 'Abbas' plans. Senior aides to the Palestinian chairman told The Media Line (TML) that contrary to several reports published recently, 'Abbas is the only candidate of Fatah movement if and when he calls for early elections, stressing that he is the most popular figure the movement have among the Palestinians. Recent Palestinian public polls have shown that 'Abbas could easily beat Hamas' candidate, the outgoing Palestinian prime minister Isma'il Haniyya, in any elections. While threatening that he will call for early elections very soon, Haniyya is insisting that such a move by 'Abbas is illegitimate and illegal. "The basic law (constitution) doesn't allow the president to call for early legislative elections, or dissolving the legislative council, and thus the call for legislative elections is illegal and unconstitutional and is only an attempt to deepen the Palestinian split," said the outgoing Hamas government after meeting late Tuesday in Gaza. However, Hamas insisted that a presidential election should be organized, and signaled that it would participate in it. TML has learned that several Palestinian officials had recently advised 'Abbas to call for a presidential election alone, stressing that winning this election would be a referendum on his political platform that could later be used in challenging Hamas positions. But this advice was dropped in favor of combined presidential and legislative elections. The fact that Hamas controls the Gaza Strip, such a position by this military movement could be considered a real threat to any possible elections in the Gaza Strip, as it could simply ban the election, and it has the power to do so. It appears that aides to 'Abbas are telling him that he can easily bypass this obstacle by adopting the full proportional election law through which candidates will run in the elections with a list that consists of people from the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem. "The call will be for elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and if Hamas bans the elections in the Gaza Strip then it is the one that will be blamed for not conducting it in Gaza. But the representatives in the Legislative Council will be from the West Bank and Gaza," one official told TML. Other Palestinian officials have advised against such an option, saying that even if the council members were from the West Bank and Gaza, the fact that elections would not be conducted in Gaza would only deepen the Palestinian split and the separation between the West Bank and Gaza. "We don't want to be seen in the eyes of the Palestinian people, the Arabs or the international community as if we only represent the Palestinians in the West Bank," said a Palestinian official, who noted that already some people considered that 'Abbas had no authority over the Gaza Strip. Another option being discussed is that 'Abbas would issue a presidential decree asking the Higher Palestinian Committee for Elections to prepare for the elections, while the committee would say that it could not conduct elections in the Gaza Strip because Hamas was banning them, thus placing responsibility on the shoulders of Hamas. 'Abbas has the support of the Arabs after Arab foreign ministers declared in Cairo recently that they supported him to stay in office until achieving Palestinian national reconciliation. The same position has been adopted by the international community. In a statement following its meeting two days ago in New York the Quartet stated: "Taking note of the resolutions adopted by the Arab League on November 26, the Quartet reiterated that a lasting solution to the situation in Gaza can only be achieved through peaceful means. It reiterated its previous call for all Palestinians to commit themselves to non-violence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations. Restoring Palestinian unity based on the commitments of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) – the legitimate and internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people – would be an important factor in this process." The standoff of the Palestinian elections is just another picture in the wider Palestinian dilemma. "Hamas now is not keen to give up its control of Gaza without ensuring full participation in the P.A. and the PLO organization," said Palestinian analyst Hani Al-Ma'sri. "For Hamas, Gaza in the hand is better than a dozen of birds on the tree in the West Bank," he added. | 
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